The stage is set for the 2025 federal election, and while Melbourne’s western and northern seats have historically played a robust supporting role for the incumbent government, a Monash University politics expert says these strongholds could be thrust into the spotlight as shifting allegiances start to become apparent.
Emeritus Professor of Politics Paul Strangio believes cost-of-living pressures, housing crisis, and high mortgage rates will drive voters’ decisions when they go to the polls on May 3.
He also believes there’s another prominent factor that will impact Labor locally.
“There’s a long-term sentiment in these areas of neglect, voters feel like they’ve been taken for granted,” he said.
Professor Strangio said the dynamics within these traditionally safe Labor seats have been rapidly changing, as evidenced in the 2022 federal election.
“There were very large primary vote swings against Labor, especially in the western suburbs, the outer western and outer northern suburbs,” he said.
Yet, that didn’t translate into a swing towards the Liberal party either.
“Instead, the falling away of the Labor primary vote benefited a melange of minor parties and independents,” Professor Strangio said.
It’s a pattern he expects to see again this year.
Out of the 10 seats in the west and north-west, Professor Strangio said McEwen, which includes Donnybrook, Whittlesea and Mernda, could be one to keep an eye on.
“Liberals are talking about the possibility of picking up McEwen, so they’ve got a chance there,” he said.
Broadly, Professor Strangio believes the unpopularity of the Victorian Labor government could play out adversely for its federal counterpart.
“There seems to be little doubt about that, it will be a drag on the federal Labor party’s vote,” he said.
“It’s one of the reasons the Liberals believe Victoria is the state where they can make headway in this election.”
As far as Melbourne’s western and northern seats go, Professor Strangio said he’ll be watching the electorates closely.
“If Labor loses votes again, where will those votes go?”
