Eyes are on Melton ahead of the state election, as opinion polls show the area moving into more marginal territory than many areas in the west, but it’s still “Labor’s election to lose,” according to a Monash University political expert.
Dr Zareh Ghazarian said voters across the north-west are focussed on issues such as healthcare, education and transport service provision, all of which he said have dominated the election campaign so far, but Melton has particular concerns as a growing suburb.
“Growing areas require additional support and government infrastructure, so that makes sense as to why [the parties] are focusing on these things,” he said.
“We can expect these marginal seats to be a vigorous contest between the two major parties especially. What would give the opposition a bit of hope, or encouragement to contest this seat, I think is the margin [of five per cent].
“From what I’ve seen, and from what the opinion polls tell us, it still looks like this is Labor’s election to lose. With a five per cent margin, this is a marginal seat – this is one to watch on election night.”
A number of independents, such as Dr Ian Birchall and Jarrod Bingham, have also been garnering attention in the Melton campaign, and Dr Ghazarian said there is “a bit of a move” away from the major parties this election.
“The major party vote in the Victorian election has consistently been over 70 per cent at the last three elections,” he said.
“It could be that that vote comes down at this election, and there are new parties emerging, parties that have very specific policy agendas they want to pursue and they may be able to chip support away from the major parties.”
Dr Ghazarian said the new electorate of Eureka will also be an “interesting one to watch”.
“We would expect Labor to win this seat and based on voting patterns, it should hold the seat but it could be a bit of a litmus test as to how Labor performs at the election more generally. If we see swings against the government in Eureka, there’s probably swings against the government at the state level,” he said.
